Toby Samuel vs Daniel Rincon · Match odds & ELO prediction
Hersonissos • Hard • Mar 4, 2026 • 9:40 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Toby Samuel
Key insights
Player performance profile
Toby Samuel
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~364 points across 2 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~364 points across 2 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Daniel Rincon
40% · 4–6 on hard
64% · 9–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~380 points across 3 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~380 points across 3 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 88% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.7 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Toby Samuel and Daniel Rincon are set to meet at the Hersonissos on March 4, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Samuel enters with a 3–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Rincon has posted a 4–6 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Samuel entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Samuel leads 4–0 over Rincon, including a win in their most recent meeting.