Joao Fonseca vs Raphael Collignon · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 5, 2026 • 2:55 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Raphael Collignon
67% · 4–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,203 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,203 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 27% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 63% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +11.7 | 99% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Joao Fonseca and Raphael Collignon are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 5, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Fonseca enters with a 0–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Collignon has posted a 4–2 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Collignon entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fonseca leads 2–0 over Collignon, including a win in their most recent meeting.