Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima · Match odds & ELO prediction
Acapulco • Hard • Feb 28, 2026 • 4:00 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Frances Tiafoe
Key insights
Player performance profile
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,674 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,674 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 51% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.7 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Brandon Nakashima
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,482 points across 71 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,482 points across 71 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima are set to meet at the Acapulco on February 28, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Tiafoe enters with a 1–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Nakashima has posted a 4–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Tiafoe, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Tiafoe leads 6–1 over Nakashima, including a win in their most recent meeting.