Jasmine Paolini vs Katie Boulter · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Merida • Hard • Feb 28, 2026 • 3:20 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Jasmine Paolini
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jasmine Paolini
53% · 8–7 on hard
33% · 1–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,669 points across 77 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,669 points across 77 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Katie Boulter
69% · 11–5 on hard
50% · 3–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,542 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,542 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 38% | 21% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jasmine Paolini and Katie Boulter are set to meet at the WTA Merida on February 28, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Paolini enters with a 8–7 record on hard courts in 2026, while Boulter has posted a 11–5 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paolini entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Paolini leads 4–1 over Boulter, including a win in their most recent meeting.