Daniil Medvedev vs Stan Wawrinka · Match odds & ELO prediction
Dubai • Hard • Feb 25, 2026 • 10:05 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Daniil Medvedev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,134 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,134 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 79% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.4 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 61% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Stan Wawrinka
20% · 1–4 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,113 points across 24 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,113 points across 24 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.6 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.2 | 6% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 18% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Stan Wawrinka are set to meet at the Dubai on February 25, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Medvedev enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Wawrinka has posted a 1–4 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Medvedev entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 3–1 over Wawrinka, including a win in their most recent meeting.