Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Dubai • Hard • Feb 24, 2026 • 10:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Pablo Carreno-Busta
Key insights
Player performance profile
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,531 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,531 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 42% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 39% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 50% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 72% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
50% · 6–6 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
41%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,383 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,383 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.5 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Pablo Carreno-Busta and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the Dubai on February 24, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Carreno-Busta enters with a 8–7 record on hard courts in 2026, while Shapovalov has posted a 6–6 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Shapovalov, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 3–1 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.