Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Doha • Hard • Feb 19, 2026 • 4:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Karen Khachanov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.0 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 66% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Karen Khachanov are set to meet at the Doha on February 19, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Khachanov has posted a 0–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–0 over Khachanov, including a win in their most recent meeting.