Sebastian Ofner vs Hugo Gaston · Match odds & ELO prediction
Lille • Hard • Feb 16, 2026 • 8:20 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Hugo Gaston
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Ofner
73% · 11–4 on hard
60% · 9–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,989 points across 33 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,989 points across 33 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 69% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.2 | 6% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.0 | 49% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 24% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Hugo Gaston
56% · 9–7 on hard
38% · 3–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,381 points across 37 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,381 points across 37 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 1% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 12% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Ofner and Hugo Gaston are set to meet at the Lille on February 16, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Ofner enters with a 11–4 record on hard courts in 2026, while Gaston has posted a 9–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Gaston, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Ofner leads 4–2 over Gaston, including a win in their most recent meeting.