Sebastian Korda vs Frances Tiafoe · Match odds & ELO prediction
Dallas • Hard • Feb 12, 2026 • 2:40 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Sebastian Korda
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Korda
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,683 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,683 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 69% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,041 points across 53 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,041 points across 53 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 61% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe are set to meet at the Dallas on February 12, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Korda enters with a 2–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Tiafoe has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Korda leads 4–2 over Tiafoe, including a win in their most recent meeting.