Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Feb 1, 2026 • 8:45 AM
Final score
3 - 1
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Novak Djokovic
78% · 25–7 on hard
75% · 9–3 on clay
83% · 5–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,813 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,813 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.1 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 90% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.9 | 64% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 85% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are set to meet at the Australian Open on February 1, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Djokovic has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 5 wins.