Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 30, 2026 • 10:25 AM
Final score
3 - 2
Winner Novak Djokovic
Key insights
Player performance profile
Novak Djokovic
78% · 25–7 on hard
75% · 9–3 on clay
83% · 5–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,633 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,633 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.1 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 90% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.7 | 41% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 54% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,289 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,289 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.0 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 30, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Djokovic enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Sinner has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sinner entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sinner leads 8–2 over Djokovic.