Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 30, 2026 • 3:50 AM
Final score
3 - 2
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexander Zverev
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,273 points across 83 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,273 points across 83 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.0 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 68% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 81% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 30, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2026, while Zverev has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–4 over Zverev, including a win in their most recent meeting.