Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 22, 2026 • 12:15 AM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Luciano Darderi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,624 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,624 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.8 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 64% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Luciano Darderi
29% · 6–15 on hard
73% · 30–11 on clay
33% · 2–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,827 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,827 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 63% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 56% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 74% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 3–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Darderi has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Darderi entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 4 wins.