Ergi Kirkin vs Thijs Boogaard · Match odds & ELO prediction
Soma Bay 2 • Hard • Jan 20, 2026 • 3:45 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Ergi Kirkin
Key insights
Player performance profile
Ergi Kirkin
67% · 4–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~107 points across 2 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~107 points across 2 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 28% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.8 | 90% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Thijs Boogaard
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~437 points across 3 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~437 points across 3 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Ergi Kirkin and Thijs Boogaard are set to meet at the Soma Bay 2 on January 20, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Kirkin enters with a 4–2 record on hard courts in 2026, while Boogaard has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kirkin entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Kirkin leads 1–0 over Boogaard, including a win in their most recent meeting.