Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 21, 2026 • 12:45 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Zhuoxuan Bai
40% · 2–3 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
9 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~916 points across 6 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~916 points across 6 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 64% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +10.9 | 98% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Zhuoxuan Bai are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 21, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 5–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Bai has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 1–0 over Bai, including a win in their most recent meeting.