Tomas Machac vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Adelaide • Hard • Jan 16, 2026 • 2:40 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Tomas Machac
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tomas Machac
62% · 8–5 on hard
50% · 4–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,133 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,133 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 65% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.1 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 88% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tomas Machac and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Adelaide on January 16, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Machac enters with a 8–5 record on hard courts in 2026, while Paul has posted a 0–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Paul, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Machac leads 3–1 over Paul, including a win in their most recent meeting.