Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 18, 2026 • 6:15 AM
Final score
3 - 0
Winner Frances Tiafoe
Key insights
Player performance profile
Frances Tiafoe
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,074 points across 47 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,074 points across 47 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jason Kubler
70% · 30–13 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
60% · 3–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,549 points across 10 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,549 points across 10 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 76% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 63% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.4 | 45% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Frances Tiafoe and Jason Kubler are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 18, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Tiafoe enters with a 1–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Kubler has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Tiafoe leads 4–0 over Kubler, including a win in their most recent meeting.