Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 20, 2026 • 2:05 AM
Final score
3 - 2
Winner Karen Khachanov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Karen Khachanov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,656 points across 53 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,656 points across 53 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.3 | 31% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 30% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex Michelsen
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,444 points across 53 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,444 points across 53 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 34% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 45% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.2 | 50% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 78% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Karen Khachanov and Alex Michelsen are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 20, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Khachanov enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Michelsen has posted a 3–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Michelsen entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Khachanov leads 2–1 over Michelsen, including a win in their most recent meeting.