Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 19, 2026 • 2:05 AM
Final score
0 - 3
Winner Andrey Rublev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,638 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,638 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 33% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.3 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,305 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,305 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 57% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.7 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Andrey Rublev are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 19, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with a 1–3 record on hard courts in 2026, while Rublev has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Arnaldi entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 3–2 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.