Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 19, 2026 • 2:05 AM
Final score
0 - 3
Winner Andrey Rublev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
39%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.9 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,229 points across 69 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,229 points across 69 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.7 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 38% | 20% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Andrey Rublev are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 19, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with a 1–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Rublev has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rublev entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 3–2 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.