Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 19, 2026 • 2:05 AM
Final score
0 - 3
Winner Andrey Rublev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,196 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,196 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 30% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 29% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,426 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,426 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 52% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.4 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 39% | 24% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Andrey Rublev are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 19, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with a 1–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Rublev has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 3–2 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.