Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP United Cup • Hard • Jan 3, 2026 • 10:15 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Taylor Fritz
25% · 1–3 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,943 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,943 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.7 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.1 | 39% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 67% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 73% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 44% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Taylor Fritz and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the ATP United Cup on January 3, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Fritz enters with a 1–3 record on hard courts in 2026, while Baez has posted a 10–4 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Fritz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fritz leads 5–1 over Baez.