Maria Sakkari vs Naomi Osaka · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA United Cup • Hard • Jan 2, 2026 • 9:20 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Maria Sakkari
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Sakkari
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,387 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,387 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 26% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.1 | 46% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,157 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,157 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 36% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.2 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Sakkari and Naomi Osaka are set to meet at the WTA United Cup on January 2, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Sakkari enters with a 2–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Osaka has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Osaka entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.