Varvara Lepchenko vs Elvina Kalieva · Match odds & ELO prediction
Quito • Clay • Dec 3, 2025 • 7:40 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Elvina Kalieva
Key insights
Player performance profile
Varvara Lepchenko
52% · 17–16 on hard
55% · 21–17 on clay
25% · 1–3 on grass
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,537 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,537 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 33% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.9 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.8 | 25% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 28% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elvina Kalieva
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~665 points across 5 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~665 points across 5 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 48% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.8 | 25% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Varvara Lepchenko and Elvina Kalieva are set to meet at the Quito on December 3, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Lepchenko enters with a 21–17 record on clay courts in 2025, while Kalieva has posted a 11–10 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kalieva entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Kalieva leads 3–0 over Lepchenko, including a win in their most recent meeting.