Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Riyadh • Hard • Nov 7, 2025 • 3:15 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.5 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Finals - Riyadh on November 7, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 37–14 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rybakina has posted a 42–13 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Rybakina leads 4–3 over Pegula, including a win in their most recent meeting.