Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Riyadh • Hard • Nov 2, 2025 • 2:15 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,626 points across 90 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.7 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 83% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jasmine Paolini
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,182 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,182 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini are set to meet at the Finals - Riyadh on November 2, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Paolini has posted a 27–15 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–1 over Paolini, including a win in their most recent meeting.