Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca · Match odds & ELO prediction
Paris • Hard • Oct 29, 2025 • 8:35 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Karen Khachanov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Karen Khachanov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.0 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,337 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,337 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.7 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.5 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Karen Khachanov and Joao Fonseca are set to meet at the Paris on October 29, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Khachanov enters with a 15–15 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fonseca has posted a 26–8 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Khachanov leads 1–0 over Fonseca, including a win in their most recent meeting.