Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie · Match odds & ELO prediction
Paris • Hard • Oct 28, 2025 • 6:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Cameron Norrie
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cameron Norrie
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,880 points across 80 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,880 points across 80 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.4 | 60% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.6 | 72% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Cameron Norrie are set to meet at the Paris on October 28, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 38–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Norrie has posted a 19–19 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–3 over Norrie, including a win in their most recent meeting.