Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Tokyo • Hard • Oct 23, 2025 • 3:25 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Leylah Fernandez
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,487 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,487 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.0 | 89% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.7 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.4 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.6 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Leylah Fernandez and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Tokyo on October 23, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fernandez enters with a 28–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rybakina has posted a 42–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rybakina entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rybakina leads 3–2 over Fernandez, including a win in their most recent meeting.