Marcos Giron vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Basel • Hard • Oct 21, 2025 • 3:35 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Denis Shapovalov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marcos Giron
60% · 12–8 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,238 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,238 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 40% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 33% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
50% · 6–6 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
41%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,383 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,383 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 81% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.5 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marcos Giron and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the Basel on October 21, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Giron enters with a 15–18 record on hard courts in 2025, while Shapovalov has posted a 23–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Shapovalov entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Giron leads 3–2 over Shapovalov.