Leylah Fernandez vs Maria Sakkari · Match odds & ELO prediction
Tokyo • Hard • Oct 21, 2025 • 1:40 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Leylah Fernandez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Leylah Fernandez
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,605 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,605 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.4 | 45% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Maria Sakkari
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,267 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,267 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 27% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.2 | 46% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Leylah Fernandez and Maria Sakkari are set to meet at the Tokyo on October 21, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fernandez enters with a 28–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Sakkari has posted a 15–20 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Fernandez, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Sakkari leads 3–2 over Fernandez.