Elise Mertens vs Cristina Bucsa · Match odds & ELO prediction
Osaka • Hard • Oct 14, 2025 • 8:35 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Elise Mertens
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elise Mertens
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,757 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,757 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.4 | 45% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cristina Bucsa
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,606 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,606 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 52% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.9 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elise Mertens and Cristina Bucsa are set to meet at the Osaka on October 14, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mertens enters with a 22–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Bucsa has posted a 28–22 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Mertens entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.