Sebastian Baez vs Holger Rune · Match odds & ELO prediction
Shanghai • Hard • Oct 3, 2025 • 6:35 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Holger Rune
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.5 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.4 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Holger Rune
64% · 23–13 on hard
64% · 9–5 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 68% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 68% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 40% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Holger Rune are set to meet at the Shanghai on October 3, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 3–12 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rune has posted a 23–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rune entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rune leads 3–2 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.