Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Nardi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Shanghai • Hard • Oct 1, 2025 • 4:40 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Luca Nardi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Ofner
73% · 11–4 on hard
60% · 9–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,989 points across 33 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,989 points across 33 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 68% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.2 | 6% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.0 | 48% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 24% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Luca Nardi
47% · 8–9 on hard
0% · 0–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,000 points across 40 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,000 points across 40 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.5 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.3 | 68% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Ofner and Luca Nardi are set to meet at the Shanghai on October 1, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Ofner enters with a 0–4 record on hard courts in 2025, while Nardi has posted a 22–19 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Ofner leads 2–1 over Nardi.