Alex Bolt vs Mackenzie McDonald · Match odds & ELO prediction
Jingshan • Hard • Sep 27, 2025 • 7:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Alex Bolt
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex Bolt
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,133 points across 13 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,133 points across 13 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 53% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 31% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.1 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 23% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Mackenzie McDonald
59% · 32–22 on hard
20% · 1–4 on clay
55% · 6–5 on grass
Games won (last 10)
42%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,168 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,168 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 68% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex Bolt and Mackenzie McDonald are set to meet at the Jingshan on September 27, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Bolt enters with a 26–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while McDonald has posted a 32–22 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Bolt leads 4–2 over McDonald, including a win in their most recent meeting.