Alex Bolt vs Mackenzie McDonald · Match odds & ELO prediction
Jingshan • Hard • Sep 27, 2025 • 7:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Alex Bolt
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex Bolt
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,545 points across 10 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,545 points across 10 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 55% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -6.9 | 6% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Mackenzie McDonald
59% · 32–22 on hard
20% · 1–4 on clay
55% · 6–5 on grass
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,754 points across 45 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,754 points across 45 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 51% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.1 | 83% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex Bolt and Mackenzie McDonald are set to meet at the Jingshan on September 27, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Bolt enters with a 26–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while McDonald has posted a 32–22 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for McDonald entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Bolt leads 4–2 over McDonald, including a win in their most recent meeting.