Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Beijing • Hard • Sep 28, 2025 • 7:30 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Daniil Medvedev
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniil Medvedev
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,126 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,126 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 78% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.7 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 54% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,653 points across 73 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,653 points across 73 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 89% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.0 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniil Medvedev and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are set to meet at the Beijing on September 28, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Medvedev enters with a 30–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fokina has posted a 30–18 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Fokina entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Medvedev leads 5–1 over Fokina, including a win in their most recent meeting.