Sebastian Korda vs Taylor Fritz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Tokyo • Hard • Sep 28, 2025 • 2:10 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Taylor Fritz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Korda
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,004 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,004 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.4 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.6 | 78% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Taylor Fritz
25% · 1–3 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,625 points across 86 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,625 points across 86 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.1 | 26% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.4 | 35% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Korda and Taylor Fritz are set to meet at the Tokyo on September 28, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Korda enters with a 19–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fritz has posted a 36–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Fritz, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Fritz leads 4–1 over Korda, including a win in their most recent meeting.