Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Vilius Gaubas · Match odds & ELO prediction
Lisbon • Clay • Sep 26, 2025 • 2:00 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Vilius Gaubas
Key insights
Player performance profile
Daniel Merida Aguilar
67% · 12–6 on hard
76% · 13–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,216 points across 21 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.2 | 81% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Vilius Gaubas
63% · 5–3 on hard
50% · 10–10 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,888 points across 30 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,888 points across 30 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 14% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 76% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 97% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Daniel Merida Aguilar and Vilius Gaubas are set to meet at the Lisbon on September 26, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Aguilar enters with a 35–16 record on clay courts in 2025, while Gaubas has posted a 36–19 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Gaubas leads 4–1 over Aguilar, including a win in their most recent meeting.