Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
Tokyo • Hard • Sep 25, 2025 • 9:20 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the Tokyo on September 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 38–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Baez has posted a 3–12 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 3–0 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.