Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Sep 7, 2025 • 6:50 PM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,724 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.0 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 76% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the US Open on September 7, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sinner enters with a 39–3 record on hard courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 38–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Sinner, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–4 over Sinner.