Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Sep 7, 2025 • 6:50 PM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
66%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,069 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,069 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.1 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 87% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the US Open on September 7, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sinner enters with a 39–3 record on hard courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 38–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Sinner, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 5 wins.