Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Winston-Salem • Hard • Aug 19, 2025 • 10:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,434 points across 41 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 45% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Winston-Salem on August 19, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 3–12 record on hard courts in 2025, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 26–12 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carreno-Busta entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 3–1 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.