Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Winston-Salem • Hard • Aug 19, 2025 • 10:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
50% · 2–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 38% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 35% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Winston-Salem on August 19, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 3–12 record on hard courts in 2025, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 26–12 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Baez, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Carreno-Busta leads 2–1 over Baez.