Lourdes Carle Maria vs Carol Zhao · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 19, 2025 • 5:30 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Carol Zhao
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lourdes Carle Maria
44% · 7–9 on hard
55% · 26–21 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,688 points across 27 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,688 points across 27 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 1% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.0 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -6.2 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 17% | 6% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carol Zhao
50% · 11–11 on hard
27% · 3–8 on clay
67% · 4–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
41%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,332 points across 8 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,332 points across 8 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.7 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 31% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.3 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lourdes Carle Maria and Carol Zhao are set to meet at the US Open on August 19, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Maria enters with a 7–9 record on hard courts in 2025, while Zhao has posted a 11–11 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Maria, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Zhao leads 3–0 over Maria, including a win in their most recent meeting.