Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cincinnati • Hard • Aug 12, 2025 • 2:05 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.5 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elise Mertens
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,620 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Elena Rybakina and Elise Mertens are set to meet at the Cincinnati on August 12, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Rybakina enters with a 42–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Mertens has posted a 22–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Rybakina, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Rybakina leads 7–0 over Mertens, including a win in their most recent meeting.