Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cincinnati • Hard • Aug 12, 2025 • 12:35 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Adrian Mannarino
Key insights
Player performance profile
Adrian Mannarino
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,215 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,215 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 76% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.7 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 13% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,568 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,568 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 79% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.9 | 43% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Cincinnati on August 12, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mannarino enters with a 16–22 record on hard courts in 2025, while Paul has posted a 16–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Mannarino entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.