Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cincinnati • Hard • Aug 12, 2025 • 12:35 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Adrian Mannarino
Key insights
Player performance profile
Adrian Mannarino
41% · 7–10 on hard
0% · 0–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
41%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,329 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,329 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 75% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.6 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 11% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Cincinnati on August 12, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mannarino enters with a 16–22 record on hard courts in 2025, while Paul has posted a 16–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paul entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.