Maria Sakkari vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Montreal • Hard • Jul 30, 2025 • 8:30 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Sakkari
57% · 8–6 on hard
0% · 0–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,056 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,056 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 44% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 25% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.6 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Sakkari and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Montreal on July 30, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sakkari enters with a 15–20 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 7–3 over Sakkari, including a win in their most recent meeting.