Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Washington • Hard • Jul 26, 2025 • 6:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Leylah Fernandez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Leylah Fernandez
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,605 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,605 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.4 | 45% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,358 points across 92 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,358 points across 92 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.6 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 33% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 66% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Leylah Fernandez and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Washington on July 26, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fernandez enters with a 28–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rybakina has posted a 42–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Rybakina entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rybakina leads 3–2 over Fernandez, including a win in their most recent meeting.