Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens · Match odds & ELO prediction
Wimbledon • Grass • Jul 6, 2025 • 3:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elise Mertens
65% · 11–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,628 points across 70 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.2 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 42% | 25% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens are set to meet at the Wimbledon on July 6, 2025 in a grass-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 7–2 record on grass courts in 2025, while Mertens has posted a 8–2 mark on grass courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sabalenka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 7–0 over Mertens, including a win in their most recent meeting.