Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek · Match odds & ELO prediction
Bad Homburg • Grass • Jun 28, 2025 • 11:45 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 73% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Iga Swiatek
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,028 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,028 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.8 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.3 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.5 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 78% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek are set to meet at the Bad Homburg on June 28, 2025 in a grass-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 4–2 record on grass courts in 2025, while Swiatek has posted a 10–1 mark on grass courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Swiatek, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Swiatek leads 6–4 over Pegula.