F. Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Wimbledon • Grass • Jun 30, 2025 • 12:40 PM
Final score
2 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
F. Fognini
25% · 1–3 on hard
27% · 3–8 on clay
0% · 0–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
40%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,403 points across 10 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,403 points across 10 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 68% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 0% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.1 | 90% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
F. Fognini and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the Wimbledon on June 30, 2025 in a grass-court singles match. Fognini enters with a 0–4 record on grass courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 11–1 mark on grass courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 3–0 over Fognini, including a win in their most recent meeting.