Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
French Open • Clay • Jun 8, 2025 • 1:30 PM
Final score
2 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jannik Sinner
93% · 39–3 on hard
85% · 11–2 on clay
89% · 8–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,859 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,859 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 8.3 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.0 | 100% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.1 | 66% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 73% | 94% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the French Open on June 8, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sinner enters with a 11–2 record on clay courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 22–1 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Alcaraz, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–4 over Sinner.