Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
French Open • Clay • Jun 3, 2025 • 6:30 PM
Final score
0 - 3
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,544 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,544 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.5 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 57% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
62%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,935 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.7 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the French Open on June 3, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Paul enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 22–1 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–2 over Paul, including a win in their most recent meeting.