Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Match odds & ELO prediction
Hamburg • Clay • May 20, 2025 • 1:30 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.5 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.4 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,357 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,357 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 61% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.4 | 88% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 81% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are set to meet at the Hamburg on May 20, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Baez enters with a 17–14 record on clay courts in 2025, while Carabelli has posted a 27–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Carabelli, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 6–1 over Carabelli, including a win in their most recent meeting.